UK Big Brother 11 #BB11 Odds on Ife is a gonna

Why anyone is on the edge of their seats on Big Brother Eviction night is beyond me.
You can usually be pretty sure who's going to go by looking at the betting odds.
To stop speculation during Big Brother 7, during which Pete Bennett remained the favourite throughout the entire series, I used to post a chart on the wall in the office showing what was going to happen - I was almost as reliable as Paul the Octopus in the World Cup.

I think there was a couple of occassions when it was close and I got it wrong, but this is a pretty good method.

People who bet on Big Brother determine the odds. People who bet on Big Brother make a fairly reliable sample of thos who vote on Big Brother. There are two main reasons why the betting odds would not indicate what would happen in the phone vote and these are:

A - Gambling types have different preferences to the phone vote audience at large.
B - A contestant does something out of character late in the week, that goes against the previously established opinion of their character (e.g. racist, sexist, violent conduct etc)

For UKs Big Brother 11 (2010) - The current chances of winning the series, as implied by the betting odds are as follows:

Josie is the favourite by this measure - but there are plently of housemates still in the running. In particular Andrew is thought to be bringing up the rear and the series could still be won by someone who has not yet shown their true colours, or even someone who has not yet entered the house.

Of course, the odds for Mario, Corin and Ife in the above chart are currently distorted by them being up for evicition. I have also calculated the implied chances of being evicted for these three and it doesn't look good for Ife who has a 72% chance of going:













So what can Ife do to beat the odds? Not much I think it is more for the others to throw it away. I haven't been watching that much but Ife seems alright to me. My interest is purely statistical, and in the fact that Steve is a bit like my gardener - but with less legs and eyes. Hold on! Steve could be a pirate (see post on pirates on this blog). Hmm what are the chances of Steve being a pirate? I can feel a chart coming on....
D.P.